Anticipated Tesla Q1 2025 Deliveries: A Look Ahead
Tesla's anticipated vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025 are forecasted to be around 359,000 units, marking a significant drop compared to previous quarters and the lowest sales in over two years. This decline is attributed to several factors, including a drop in European sales, production adjustments for upcoming models, and the high inventory and low demand for the Cybertruck, which also faced a costly recall.
European Sales Drop
Tesla registrations have dropped by as much as 70% year-over-year in European markets such as Germany and France. This significant drop in sales is likely due to a combination of stiff competition and declining EV registrations in key markets.
Cybertruck Inventory and Recall Issues
The Cybertruck inventory issue is particularly significant. As of early 2025, Tesla had approximately 2,400 unsold Cybertrucks, valued at around $200 million. Used Cybertruck prices have dropped by 55% year-over-year, and the recall involving exterior body panels falling off increased repair costs and likely dampened buyer enthusiasm.
Lowered Full-Year Delivery Consensus
Despite earlier optimistic delivery forecasts by Tesla management expecting 20–30% growth, analyst predictions have been revised downward. Barclays forecasted about 1.95 million total vehicle deliveries in 2025, below Bloomberg's consensus of 2.08 million and below Tesla's earlier estimates.
Competition and Market Share Pressure
Tesla faces increased competition and market share pressure, balancing innovation ambitions against short-term sales declines. The company remains focused on strategic growth areas like AI and autonomous driving, including Robotaxi plans, but these production and delivery issues present near-term risks to hitting previous delivery targets.
A More Optimistic Scenario
Independent data provider FactSet suggests a more optimistic scenario of 408,000 deliveries, a 5% increase from Q1 2024. One of the reasons for the potential decline is the rollout of the new Model Y, which has caused production and delivery slowdowns.
In summary, Tesla's Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries are forecasted to be around 359,000 units, down from past quarters. The decline is attributed to production prep for new models, Europe sales drop, Cybertruck inventory glut and recall. Analyst forecasts for the full-year deliveries have been lowered to around 1.95 million units, reflecting a more cautious outlook. Tesla faces increased competition and market share pressure, balancing innovation ambitions against short-term sales declines.
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