Bitcoin Interest Waning Under Economic Strain – Can the $110K Mark be Sustained?
Expectations for September's potential Fed rate cuts will come under renewed scrutiny ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on the 22nd of August. Amidst this backdrop, the price of Bitcoin, currently trading around $111,127, is undergoing a period of scrutiny.
Bulls, especially on the Options side, view the recent pullback as an opportunity for a discounted grab for a potential rally to a new peak. Speculators have scooped more calls (bullish bets) targeting $120K-$130K, marking it as a key upside target. However, the drop in demand from institutional sources, such as ETF complexes and treasury firms, has caused a pullback from $124K to $112.5K.
The decline in demand, according to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's Head of Research, is primarily behind the price retracement. Activity by large holders ("whales") moving significant quantities of Bitcoin and a surge in sell volume in futures markets indicate profit-taking and selling pressure typical near market tops.
Despite the bullish technical signals and forecasts, Bitcoin’s near-term price momentum has slowed, partly due to macroeconomic volatility stemming from tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and uncertain Federal Reserve policy. A $64.4M Bitcoin sale could stir fear of a short-term BTC price dip.
If the $110K support fails, it could be the next level to watch for a potential rebound in light of the macro pressures. Duong, Coinbase's Head of Research, added that despite the short-term challenges, the path forward looks clearer in September. Any further downside risk could be accelerated if Bitcoin clears the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis of $108K.
Options traders have made a contrarian bet, with record high Options market positioning, according to Glassnode. This contrarian bet suggests that traders expect a rebound in the near future. Delphi Digital also shared a similar cautious warning about the potential impact of the dollar liquidity drain on BTC and crypto.
Tom Lee, a Wall Street analyst, has projected that Powell will likely take a hawkish stance, but markets may rally afterwards. Whether the bulls will withstand or succumb to macro pressures remains to be seen.
The current outlook for Bitcoin's price remains cautiously optimistic over the medium to long term, but it faces notable headwinds from macroeconomic risks and a recent decline in demand from ETF complexes and treasury firms.
References: 1. Bitcoin Magazine 2. CoinDesk 3. CryptoQuant 4. Delphi Digital 5. Glassnode
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