Can Bitcoin reach a new high of $119,000 once more?
In the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with profits remaining high. As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $118,200, just below the key resistance of $119,900 and the upper Bollinger band.
Recent profit-taking in Bitcoin has been observed, but the digital currency has managed to hold above crucial support between $117,000 and $119,000, building on a robust bullish structure after breaking out from a period of consolidation. This strong bullish momentum is not just a short-term fluctuation, but rather an indication of a potential extension into a new bull cycle.
Technical analysis, on-chain data, and institutional activity collectively support this outlook, projecting further upside through August 2025. Fibonacci retracement and Elliott Wave analyses point to a price target range of approximately $128,000 to $149,000 by the end of next month.
Increased trading volume during the recent breakout above $123,000 confirms buyer dominance. Immediate resistance sits near $125,000 and $130,000, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) at $117,000 acting as technical support in case of minor corrections.
On-chain metrics further bolster the bull case. The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio with a 365-day moving average (365DMA) is approaching a peak zone similar to previous cycle tops seen in 2021. This convergence suggests a potential market cycle top around late August or early September; however, this indicator, although historically reliable in identifying overheated markets, is lagging and should be combined with risk management strategies.
Institutional inflows are substantial, with over $11.2 billion entering Bitcoin in July 2025, alongside decreasing exchange reserves, indicating sustained demand especially from Bitcoin ETFs. Large corporate purchases—such as nearly 30,000 BTC bought by firms in two days—augment market momentum.
The macroeconomic conditions for Bitcoin are neither strongly bullish nor bearish. The macro heat indicator for Bitcoin is at 44%, indicating a neutral market zone. Easing global trade tensions and a generally risk-on sentiment in broader markets have helped Bitcoin recover quickly from dips, maintaining strong price levels.
However, increasing caution among large Bitcoin holders and dominant selling pressure suggest a possible pullback. The drop in realized profits indicates that the market is starting to digest the incoming supply without triggering a strong price correction.
Despite the recent profit-taking and the approaching MVRV peak, the overall trend for Bitcoin remains bullish. Support for Bitcoin is close to $116,400, cushioning any short-term dips. Bitcoin remains in an ascending channel, suggesting either a bullish breakout or a deeper consolidation in the future.
As always, traders are advised to proceed with caution and manage risk, as a cycle top could occur by late August or early September. It is essential to combine technical analysis with fundamental research and risk management strategies.
In light of the significant institutional inflows, Bitcoin's ongoing bullish trend in the technology sector continues to be underpinned by finance, with over $11.2 billion entering the digital currency in July 2025. Despite the recent profit-taking, the robust technical analysis and on-chain data indicate an extension of this bullish momentum into August 2025, with potential price targets reaching around $128,000 to $149,000.
