Corn Vulnerability Persists on Tuesday Morn
The U.S. corn market is currently experiencing a significant shift, with expectations of a larger 2025 U.S. corn crop and steady old-crop exports, but cautious new-crop sales and moderate price pressure from ample supplies.
Current trends indicate upward revisions of 2 to 4 bushels per acre in yields, reflecting above-average crop ratings and favourable growing conditions this summer. The USDA August WASDE report and National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data point towards near-record production levels, with the 2025 corn yield forecast around 184 bushels per acre and total production just under 16 billion bushels.
However, the USDA reduced its 2025/26 U.S. corn crop estimate by 115 million bushels in July, based on slightly lowered harvested acreage of 86.8 million acres despite good yields. The USDA's Crop Progress report from late July rated 74% of the U.S. corn crop as good to excellent, an improvement from the previous year.
Regarding futures prices, the September 2025 corn contract traded near $3.79¾ per bushel, with some bullish recovery observed after minor losses. Ethanol production has slightly declined, impacting near-term corn demand, and new-crop corn sales are slower than usual, at only 12.7% of USDA forecasts compared to a typical 14.6% pace.
Old-crop corn exports are performing better than expected at 89% of USDA projections, surpassing the 5-year average, while new-crop export sales lag at 12.7% of forecasts, reflecting a slower start. Brazil’s corn exports declined over 31% year-on-year in July due to a delayed second crop harvest and port logistics issues, which adds some uncertainty to global supply flow.
USDA left corn production in Brazil and Argentina unchanged at 175 million metric tons and 48.5 million metric tons respectively, indicating stability in major Southern Hemisphere producers.
Heatwaves forecast in the U.S. Midwest from August 18-25 may put pressure on corn and soybean crops during critical development stages, posing potential weather risk. Ethanol inventories have drawn down recently, which modestly supports corn use, though ethanol production itself has slipped slightly.
Despite higher projected yields and ending stocks for new crop corn, sluggish forward sales and global logistical issues temper bullish price momentum. In summary, the corn market in August 2025 reflects a large, high-yield U.S. crop with steady old-crop exports but cautious new-crop sales and moderate price pressure from ample supplies, while global production remains stable albeit with some export flow challenges in South America.
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[1] USDA WASDE Report (August 2025) [2] NASS Crop Production Report (August 2025) [3] USDA Crop Progress Report (July 2025) [4] StoneX Market Analysis (August 2025) [5] USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (July 2025)
Technology advancements in agriculture, such as precision farming and genetically modified seeds, are expected to contribute significantly to the improved yields of the U.S. corn crop in 2025, aiding in the development of near-record production levels. On the other hand, the increasing use of technology in sports, particularly in biomechanics and performance analysis, is revolutionizing the way athletes train and compete, potentially influencing the outcome of sports events.
