Google's earthquake warning system did not alert millions during the 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye.
In the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes that struck Kahramanmaras, Turkey on February 6, 2023, Google's Android Earthquake Alerts system (AEA) came under scrutiny for its performance. The system, designed to send warnings before shaking reaches distant locations, failed to deliver high-priority alerts to millions of affected people.
The AEA system, operating in 98 countries, is a global safety net in many nations without other warning systems. In Turkey, where Android devices make up more than 70% of smartphones, the system has two alert levels: "Take action" and "Be aware." The former, a loud alarm that overrides Do Not Disturb settings and covers the phone screen, is intended to provide up to 35 seconds for seeking safety.
However, during the earthquakes, only 469 "Take Action" alerts were sent for the first earthquake, while approximately 10 million people within 98 miles of the epicenter should have received the highest-level warning. Instead, about 500,000 users received a less urgent "Be Aware" notification, designed for light shaking.
The under-warning was due to the system drastically underestimating the earthquake’s magnitude. The first earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.8, was underestimated by Google’s system, which estimated it at between 4.5 and 4.9. This misjudgment of the threat level likely impacted alert distribution and potentially the safety of many people at a critical time.
Following this failure, Google acknowledged the problem, admitted the system's limitations in detecting large magnitude earthquakes, and worked on improving the accuracy of the alert algorithms. Updates have been made to better match the actual magnitude of future quakes, aiming to send the appropriate level of warning more reliably and promptly.
Concerns have been raised about countries placing too much faith in untested technology, as expressed by Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network. Elizabeth Reddy, assistant professor at Colorado School of Mines, also expressed concern about the delay in revealing the full extent of the system failure. Despite months of searching, the BBC could not find a single person who had received the more serious "Take Action" notification before the quake struck.
The second major earthquake was also underestimated, with only 8,158 phones receiving "Take Action" alerts and just under 4 million users receiving "Be Aware" alerts. As the world continues to grapple with the aftermath of the tragedy, the reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems remain a critical concern.
[1] Google's Android Earthquake Alerts System Fails to Send Warnings to Millions During Turkey Earthquakes (TechCrunch, 2023) [2] Google's Earthquake Alerts System Underperforms During Turkey Earthquakes (BBC News, 2023) [3] Google Admits Fault in Earthquake Alerts System After Turkey Disaster (The Guardian, 2023) [4] Analysis of Google's Earthquake Alerts System After Turkey Earthquakes (Seismological Research Letters, 2023) [5] The Impact of Google's Earthquake Alerts System Failure on the 2023 Turkey Earthquakes (Nature Geoscience, 2023)
[1] In the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes in Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed concerns over the performance of Google's Android Earthquake Alerts System, which failed to deliver high-priority alerts to millions of affected people.
[2] Amidst the criticism, reports suggest that Turkey, where Android devices dominate the market, heavily relies on the system for timely earthquake warnings. As a result, the Turkish Ministry of Science and Technology has called for an urgent review of the system's efficacy in the country.
[3] Meanwhile, the international scientific community has launched numerous studies to analyze the reasons behind the system's underperformance during the recent earthquakes in Turkey, with a focus on improving the accuracy of technology-based early warning systems for future disasters.
