Grain Powerhouse Announces Boost on Thursday
In recent weeks, wheat futures on major U.S. exchanges have displayed a mixed performance, reflecting a market challenged by abundant global supply and competitive export pricing.
The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have experienced a decline over the past month, trading near a one-year low around $5.03–$5.10 per bushel in August 2025. This drop is attributed to strong harvests worldwide and a larger U.S. corn crop forecast that weighs on wheat's market appeal.
Similarly, Hard Red Winter wheat (KCBT) and Hard Red Spring wheat (MGEX) futures have traded in similar ranges. By late July 2025, the Minneapolis September contracts were near $5.91, and September 2026 was about $6.04 per bushel.
Despite the overall downward trend, the wheat market has shown some signs of recovery. On September 25, 2025, all major exchanges closed higher. KCBT Wheat closed at $5.21 1/2, up 10 cents, while CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4. MGEX Wheat saw marginal gains, with contracts up 2 to 5 cents.
The wheat complex saw gains on Thursday, with most exchanges higher. KC HRW posted a 9 to 10 cent gain across most nearby contracts. The largest buyer was Nigeria, purchasing 185,900 MT. Bangladesh and Mexico also purchased significant amounts, with 165,000 MT and 105,900 MT respectively.
The price forecasts for 2025 remain mixed but generally expect wheat prices to fluctuate between approximately $5.00 and $7.00 per bushel, depending on climatic conditions, export demand, geopolitical risks, and supply changes. Some analysts expect a steady upward trend later in 2025 as demand from Asia and Africa grows, despite current oversupply.
It is essential to note that this article provides information solely for informational purposes. Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. For more detailed information, please view the website's Disclosure Policy here.
Sources:
- USDA reports a total of 737,831 MT of wheat sold in the week ending on July 31
- Global wheat production is at record or near-record levels
- CBOT wheat futures decline over the past month
- U.S. winter wheat planted area for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly
- KCBT (Hard Red Winter wheat) and MGEX (Hard Red Spring wheat) futures trade in similar ranges
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