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Lone Bitcoin Miner Defies Probabilities to Mine Complete Block on Own

Uncommon Bitcoin Mining Success is Statistically Slimmer than Being Struck by Lightning

Sole Miner Unexpectedly Mines Entire Block of Bitcoin, Defying Probabilities
Sole Miner Unexpectedly Mines Entire Block of Bitcoin, Defying Probabilities

Lone Bitcoin Miner Defies Probabilities to Mine Complete Block on Own

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In the dynamic world of Bitcoin mining, solo mining has become a rare and challenging pursuit, overshadowed by the dominance of mining pools. The industrial scale of Bitcoin mining, where large, professional players dominate the landscape, has led to this shift.

Given the reduced block reward of 3.125 BTC per block following the halving in April 2024, profit margins have shrunk significantly, forcing many solo miners to either join pools or abandon mining altogether. This trend is evident in the consolidation of mining pools, with entities like WhitePool now controlling over 1% of the global Bitcoin hashrate.

However, despite this dominance, rare solo mining achievements still occur. A recent example from July 2025 showcased an anonymous miner winning a $349,000 block reward with just 2.3 PH/s hash power, defying odds of roughly 0.004% (1 in 37,5303). Such wins are considered once-in-several-years events, underscoring the exceptional and difficult nature of solo wins.

The economic and technical barriers to solo mining are high. Matching the global network’s hash power would require hundreds of thousands of ASIC units and millions of dollars in upfront and operational costs, including electricity. For the typical miner, solo mining is mostly a near-impossible feat.

The near-extinction of solo mining raises concerns about centralization, as large mining pools and industrial players control the majority of network hash rate. This concentration may impact the network’s security and censorship resistance. On the other hand, solo mining success stories highlight the role of randomness and luck in block discovery, emphasizing that while pools stabilize income, they reduce the "jackpot" potential for individual miners.

Understanding the economics, solo mining is generally unprofitable for small or mid-scale miners in 2025 without massive investments, given rising difficulty, halved rewards, and electricity costs. Mining now favours entities with access to cheap energy and massive scale.

In summary, solo mining in 2025 is a rare and challenging pursuit, overshadowed by industrial-scale mining pools that dominate Bitcoin’s hashrate. However, the occasional solo block win demonstrates that luck and precision can allow individual miners to secure full block rewards. This reality significantly shapes the economics, decentralization, and security dynamics of the Bitcoin network today.

  1. With the increased domination of mining pools in Bitcoin's hashrate, some miners are resorting to using tokens that represent their share in a pool to participate in mining, thus indirectly contributing to the network's hashrate.
  2. As Bitcoin technology continues to advance, there is a growing interest in the development of more energy-efficient mining hardware, as this could potentially level the playing field for solo miners against large industrial mining operations.

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