Meta's Dilemma: Embracing Rival AI Technologies for Advancement
Meta, the tech giant known for its social media platforms, finds itself in a predicament as it struggles to maintain its dominance in the rapidly evolving world of artificial intelligence (AI).
Meta owns the infrastructure, yet lacks competitive AI models. The company is considering several options to address this issue. One possibility is to become an AI customer, focusing on the application layer, and using the best external models, such as those from OpenAI. Another option is to make Meta's own LLaMA models truly competitive, build an ecosystem around open models, and hope to control standards.
However, the path to AI success has proven elusive for Meta. The wrong incentives, talent, culture, and metrics have hindered progress. The adoption of LLaMA has been limited, and employees prefer OpenAI models over Meta's.
Meta's public position emphasizes AI research, open source leadership, massive AI investment, platform independence, but the reality may differ. The platform paradox, a situation where building everything yourself often results in nothing that works, seems to be at play here.
Historical parallels can be drawn with Microsoft's mobile paradox, Google's social paradox, and Amazon's phone paradox, all resulting in complete failure, shutdown, and a billion-dollar write-off respectively. AI inverts platform economics, with capability moats determining success, switching ease, diseconomies of scale, and commodity platforms becoming utilities.
The distribution strategy in the AI realm is determined by model quality. In this context, Meta may find itself distributing competitors' models. Product integration requires massive refactoring for Meta.
Market dynamics force buying due to capability gap, opportunity cost, talent constraints, innovation velocity, and the math no longer supporting building everything. Meta is years behind in time to market.
The traditional platform value is control and integration, while the AI value is raw capability and performance. This shift from ownership to access is a challenge for Meta. The sunk costs of its $14.8 billion AI infrastructure create a psychological lock-in due to the sunk cost fallacy.
Meta's self-conception is challenged due to the identity crisis. The company discovered that platform power doesn't translate to AI power. User expectations are set by competitors, and Meta's consumer products have AI features lagging behind.
In the next decade, platform companies will discover that in AI, the model is the platform, and if you don't have the best model, you don't have a platform at all. The dependency cascade includes levels of model dependency, ecosystem dependency, strategic dependency, and existential dependency. The platform paradox demonstrates that in AI, capability beats control.
Meta is not alone in this predicament. Companies like Google and OpenAI, with their pure AI focus and superior models, pose a significant challenge. Anthropic, on the other hand, specializes in enterprise solutions. The race to AI dominance is on.
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