Solar outbursts posing a risk to the Artemis lunar mission
In the approaching years, the Artemis program, NASA's mission to return humans to the Moon and establish a lunar base by 2030, will face a significant challenge: increased solar radiation. The Artemis 3 mission, slated for 2026—the peak of the solar cycle—will be particularly vulnerable to powerful solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
To mitigate this risk, NASA has devised a multi-faceted approach that combines advanced forecasting technology, real-time monitoring, and physical protection.
Forecasting and Early Warning
NASA, in collaboration with NOAA, continuously monitors the Sun using missions like the Solar Dynamics Observatory, GOES satellites, and upcoming instruments such as those on the Lunar Gateway (e.g., HERMES). AI models like Surya help predict solar flares up to two hours ahead, improving early warning capabilities.
Real-Time Space Weather Assessment
NASA’s Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office performs real-time analysis to provide timely alerts for space weather events that could impact astronauts, allowing mission control to make critical protective decisions.
Protective Shielded Areas
If a solar storm is forecasted or detected en route or on the lunar surface, astronauts can take shelter in designated "storm shelters" within their spacecraft or lunar habitat. These areas are designed with enhanced radiation shielding to minimize exposure to solar particle events.
This combination of cutting-edge forecasting technology and procedural protocols aims to significantly reduce risks from increased solar flare intensity expected during the Artemis 3 mission timeframe.
Additional Safety Measures
Additional spacecraft design updates—such as improvements to spacecraft heat shields for re-entry and protective structural materials—complement these measures to ensure astronaut safety from both thermal and radiation hazards during the mission.
The lunar surface presents dangers such as cosmic rays, solar radiation, and lunar earthquakes. However, NASA's strategies address these concerns, striving to make the Artemis 3 mission as safe as possible.
In 2023, NASA financed the creation of space weather centers, including the CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence, to predict and prepare for space weather events. The predictions from these centers are intended to allow astronauts to anticipate and protect themselves, particularly against solar flares.
The most powerful solar flare since 2017, classified as X2.8, occurred in December 2023. With the solar cycle approaching its peak in 2026, generating up to 20 large streams of energetic particles each year, the need for accurate and timely predictions is more critical than ever. The CLEAR centers will need to find a way to predict these flares by 2026 to allow astronauts on the Moon to be warned in advance and take shelter.
This danger is taken into account in the space domain, specifically in the Artemis program. On the Moon, humans can receive a thousand times higher dose of solar radiation than that received by a person on Earth during a massive solar flare. Energetic particles emitted by the Sun can penetrate human flesh and promote the appearance of cancers.
Despite these challenges, NASA remains committed to its goal of sending the first humans to the Moon and establishing a base there for long-term settlement by 2030. The Artemis 3 mission, which will mark the return of humans to the Moon, is a main concern due to increased solar radiation. However, with its comprehensive approach, NASA aims to ensure the safety of its astronauts and the success of the Artemis program.
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