Sugar Futures Volatile: Recent Rally Followed by Significant Decline
Sugar futures have been volatile recently, with a significant decline following a rally. The continuous ICE world sugar futures contract closed at 19.26 cents per pound on July 2, 2025, marking a 19.8% decrease to a low of 15.44 cents per pound. Meanwhile, other soft commodities have surged to record highs.
The Teucrium Sugar ETF (CANE) has been affected by these fluctuations. It owns a portfolio of three actively traded ICE world sugar futures contracts, excluding the nearby contract, to manage roll risk. Despite a recent rally in sugar futures, CANE's share price remained relatively stable, rising 3.9% from $10.37 to $10.77 per share between September 5 and 15, 2025.
Analysts have mixed views on sugar's future. Bulls point to rising production costs, a potential break to the upside after consolidation, U.S. tariffs, and increasing demand due to changing regulations on sugar substitutes. However, bears note that sugar's trend has been bearish since early August 2025, with nearby futures trading at 16.28 cents per pound and remaining relatively stable since then. Since July 2, 2025, sugar futures have traded in a consolidation range primarily between 16 and 17 cents per pound.
Investors seeking direct exposure to the world sugar market can trade futures on the Intercontinental Exchange. Each March futures contract contains 112,000 pounds of sugar and has a value of $18,726.40 at the current price of 16.72 cents per pound. Despite recent volatility, sugar's future remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish cases present.
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