Ukrainian gambling industry poised to break records under specific conditions, according to an expert
The Gambling Market in Ukraine: Expert Insights and Emerging Trends from Yurii Havrylechko
In a recent blog post on censor.net, expert Yurii Havrylechko from the Analytical Center "Ukrainian Thought Factory" sheds light on the gambling market's potential and the critical factors that could influence its growth.
He underscores the importance of striking a balance in regulatory policy, as excessive regulations might lead to unwanted outcomes like market shadowing and business migration to other jurisdictions. The Ukrainian gambling market can potentially flourish if fiscal stability, regulatory flexibility, and a safe environment for development are guaranteed.
The European market, where online gambling constitutes around 40%, mirrors the trends expected for Ukraine by 2025. However, the market's success heavily relies on the completion of the ongoing conflict, which could accelerate economic recovery and attract investments.
Businesses in the Ukrainian gambling market are adapting to the war conditions by transitioning from offline to online segments, following European trends, and investing in platform stability to keep operations going under challenging circumstances.
The gambling market in Ukraine generated approximately 55.57 billion UAH in 2024, signifying a modest 1% annual growth. Tax contributions jumped to 5.4 billion UAH in Q1 2025 (up by 20% YoY), reflecting enhanced regulatory compliance and operational expansion. However, profitability has become increasingly concentrated, with only six out of the top ten companies remaining profitable in 2024, compared to all ten in 2023.
Notable regulatory changes include the mandatory use of cash registers since 2024, which has boosted transparency, with 8.5 billion UAH processed through these systems in early 2025. A new state agency, PlayCity, was created in May 2025 to oversee gambling regulation, aiming to curb black markets. The market is witnessing a shift towards live betting, dealer formats, and esports wagering on popular titles like CS2, Dota 2, and mobile games (PUBG Mobile, Free Fire). Operators are employing AI-driven personalization to analyze customer behavior and create tailored promotions.
The resilience of the gambling market in Ukraine, despite the ongoing conflict, may be attributed to digital infrastructure prioritization and increased online engagement. Regulatory adjustments like the RRO mandates suggest efforts to stabilize revenue streams crucial for state budgets during economic strain. However, challenges remain, such as the risk of black market growth if compliance costs outweigh operator viability.
Looking ahead, niche expansion through mobile esports and AI tools is anticipated to drive user retention. The effectiveness of PlayCity in balancing regulation to stifle illegality without curbing innovation will be key to the market's health. Lastly, consolidation among smaller operators is expected due to rising compliance costs.
- Yurii Havrylechko emphasizes that striking a balance in regulatory policy is crucial for the Ukrainian gambling market to thrive, as too much regulation might lead to unwanted outcomes like market shadowing and business migration.
- As the European market shows, the Ukrainian gambling market could bloom with fiscal stability, regulatory flexibility, and a safe environment for development.
- Businesses in the Ukrainian gambling market are adapting to war conditions by transitioning to online segments, following European trends, and investing in platform stability.
- The gambling market in Ukraine is witnessing a shift towards live betting, dealer formats, esports wagering, and AI-driven personalization efforts to analyze customer behavior and create tailored promotions, contributing to its digital resilience during the ongoing conflict.
