Which AI chatbot predictions suggest the likely future pope candidates? Here's a glimpse of their forecasts.
New Pope on the Horizon: Predictions from AI on the Next Pontiff
The Vatican is gearing up for another round of the conclave, the secretive process where the College of Cardinals elects the next pope. While the outcome remains shrouded in secrecy, AI models are weighing in with their own opinions on who the likely contender might be.
The upcoming conclave, set to commence on May 7, is expected to involve approximately 133 cardinal-electors, many of whom were appointed by the outgoing Pope Francis himself. This circumstance, according to OpenAI's ChatGPT, may influence the election's direction as many of these appointees are new and potentially inclined to uphold the legacy of their predecessor.
In the race to become the next pope, several high-ranking cardinals are contending for the position. To get a better understanding of this race, we quizzed various AI models, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Google's Gemini 1.5, xAI's Grok-2, and DeepSeek.
The High Stakes Contenders
Though no clear-cut consensus seemed to emerge among these large language models (LLMs), the competition primarily boiled down to two frontrunners, Pietro Parolin from Italy and Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines.
Italy's Pietro Parolin, a prominent figure in the Catholic Church, is the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013. ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok-2 all agree that his heavy involvement in the administration of the Holy See and his extensive diplomatic experience make him a front-runner. According to a synopsis by Grok-2, he is essentially the "deputy pope."
On the other hand, Luis Tagle, a progressive Cardinal from the Philippines, is often referred to as the "Asian Francis" by ChatGPT. He is well-regarded for his advocacy for social justice and inclusivity, making him an ideal candidate to continue the legacy of Pope Francis.
Though ChatGPT predicts Tagle has around a 35% chance of winning, this probability may decrease if the cardinals resist following Pope Francis' path or opt for a more conservative candidate. By contrast, Grok-2 estimated Tagle's chances at 22%, noting betting platform Polymarket as its source.
The Compromise Factor
AI models had varying opinions on potential compromise choices if the cardinals can't reach a consensus.
According to Grok-2 and ChatGPT, France's Jean-Marc Aveline, the Archbishop of Marseille, is a possible compromise candidate due to his expertise in interfaith dialogue, particularly with Islam, and his low profile in Vatican politics.
XAI's Grok-2 also mentioned Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa from Italy as a potential choice, applauding his neutrality and global outlook. ChatGPT, however, identified a different list of compromise candidates, composed of several cardinals from different countries.
The Longshots
The AI models also pointed out several candidates considered less likely to succeed Pope Francis.
Gemini expressed its support for Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta, highlighting his ability to create balance within the Church. Italy's Matteo Zuppi, a possible choice for those seeking a non-polarizing figure to lead reform, was preferred by Grok-2.
Finally, Hungary's Cardinal Peter Erdo is seen as a frontrunner among conservatives according to ChatGPT and Gemini, while Grok-2 considers him a compromise candidate.
The Secret Ballot
DeepSeek and Anthropic's Claude 3.7 Sonnet refused to provide specific predictions regarding the next pope, due to the undetermined outcome of the secret ballot and their respective knowledge cutoffs. These AI models stressed that the election will be heavily influenced by the deliberations of the College of Cardinals, which remain unknown until the process unfolds.
In the selection process for the next pope, AI models have identified Italy's Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines as the primary contenders. Pietro Parolin, the Vatican's Secretary of State, is considered a front-runner due to his administrative and diplomatic experience, while Luis Tagle, a progressive Cardinal from the Philippines, is known for his advocacy for social justice. ChatGPT predicts Tagle has a 35% chance of winning, but this may decrease if the cardinals opt for a more conservative candidate. AI models also suggest potential compromise candidates like Jean-Marc Aveline from France and Pierbattista Pizzaballa from Italy, or longshots like Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta and Matteo Zuppi from Italy. However, the ultimate outcome remains uncertain, as the secret ballot and the College of Cardinals' deliberations will heavily influence the election.
